Weekend TL;DR: France signals next-generation fighter cooperation with Sweden as Hormuz crisis deepens.

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Headlines

France opens door to Sweden next-generation fighter partnership. Paris has signalled openness to co-developing a next-generation combat aircraft with Stockholm, amid deepening bilateral ties that already include a likely FDI frigate sale and a naval cruise missile offer tabled ahead of Macron's Stockholm visit. After the NGF cancellation, this is the most consequential signal yet of France seeking a new European combat air partner — and Saab's ACP loyal-wingman push this week is directly relevant context. Opex360

IRGC seeks full Hormuz control; 400 ships stranded. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have declared their intent to assert full control over the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 400 vessels still trapped in the Persian Gulf. The energy and maritime security implications for Europe — already documented across the past week — are intensifying with each day the blockage persists. NZZ International

Russia strikes Kyiv ammunition depot; 37 dead, Zelensky orders drone surge. A Russian strike on a munitions storage site near Kyiv killed at least 37 civilians, prompting a criminal investigation into depot placement near residential areas. Zelensky has ordered the military to scale drone strikes on Russia to up to 1,000 per day — a significant escalatory step in Ukraine's autonomous warfare campaign. NZZ International

UK First Sea Lord: allies struggling to contain Russian submarines. The Royal Navy's professional head has publicly acknowledged that Britain and NATO partners are failing to keep pace with the growing Russian submarine threat — the most candid senior admission yet. This comes as Royal Navy Russian-vessel monitoring activations rose 25% year-on-year and three warships completed a 72-hour North Sea shadowing operation this weekend. UK Defence Journal

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Germany & DACH

Covenant to manufacture cheap Tomahawk alternative near Leipzig. US-Israeli firm Covenant plans to produce its Anthem intermediate-range cruise missile in the Leipzig area as a cost-competitive alternative to Tomahawks for the Bundeswehr. If viable, this could give Germany's €12B ELSA programme a lower-cost volume option alongside higher-end systems — and keeps sovereign German production geography in play. Augen geradeaus!

Three risks threatening Germany's multi-billion defence spending plan. An ESUT analysis identifies procurement, industrial capacity, and coalition-politics risks that could undermine Germany's medium-term military investment programme despite parliamentary approval. Worth tracking as ELSA, the DEUTZ-FFG consolidation, and Patriot production commitments all depend on sustained budget execution. ESUT

Nord Stream sabotage — legitimate military target argument aired. German investigators' conclusion that Ukraine was responsible is now being tested legally, with a defence lawyer arguing the pipelines constituted a legitimate military objective under international law. The case has direct implications for Germany's legal frameworks around infrastructure protection and attribution. FAZ Politik

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Worth Watching

South Korea launches 6th-gen fighter RFP. DAPA has issued a Request for Proposal for conceptual designs — a potential future export or partner-nation opportunity for European combat air programmes rebuilding after the NGF cancellation. The Aviationist

France accelerating COMET BVR missile for Rafale by 2030. Post-India-Pakistan clash lessons are driving a faster MBDA Meteor successor — a direct Meteor/AIM-260 class benchmark that any European next-generation air-to-air programme must now match. EurAsian Times

Ireland airspace protection — legal obstacles unresolved. French and British efforts to cover Irish airspace are stalled on legal complications, leaving a gap in NATO's northwestern air defence picture that Brussels and London will need to resolve before autumn ministerials. Opex360